Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Atlas v Carolina Chaos

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Atlas (Local)

Prediction 48.08%2.08fair odd

EV -1.44%

Edge -0.700%

Kelly -1.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.91%48.08%46.60%51.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.811.911.832.0555.25%52.41%54.64%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carolina Chaos (Visit)

Prediction 51.92%1.93fair odd

EV +1.24%

Edge +0.638%

Kelly +1.31%

Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.14%51.92%53.40%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.851.831.9557.47%54.11%54.64%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Atlas (Local): 48.08%; Carolina Chaos (Visit): 51.92%. For Carolina Chaos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -12.97%E -7.17%K -16.02%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV +1.24%E +0.638%K +1.31%G +0.016%	6.5%	2026-02-27 21:44
BetRivers🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -12.97%E -7.17%K -16.02%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV +0.724%E +0.373%K +0.771%G +0.006%	6.8%	2026-02-27 21:30
BetUS🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -12.01%E -6.56%K -14.47%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -4.99%E -2.72%K -6.01%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-02-28 02:34
FanDuel🎯	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -1.92%E -0.939%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -7.58%E -4.26%K -9.72%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-01 00:29
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -1.44%E -0.700%K -1.37%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.66%E -5.55%K -13.05%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-28 23:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.