The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Maryland Whipsnakes v Philadelphia Waterdogs

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 20:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maryland Whipsnakes (Local)

Prediction 49.01%2.04fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%49.34%48.87%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.941.9855.56%52.30%51.55%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Waterdogs (Visit)

Prediction 50.99%1.96fair odd
EV -0.572%
Edge -0.294%
Kelly -0.603%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%50.66%51.13%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.851.9555.56%53.83%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maryland Whipsnakes (Local): 49.01%; Philadelphia Waterdogs (Visit): 50.99%. For Philadelphia Waterdogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -0.572%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -2.96%E -1.49%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 21:49
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.43%E -2.27%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 20:55
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.43%E -2.27%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.22%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 21:08
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -4.92%E -2.53%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 20:55
Bally Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -4.92%E -2.53%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 20:54
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.39%E -3.34%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.61%E -1.37%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-08 21:19
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.39%E -3.34%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.69%E -3.66%K -8.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 17:29
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.31%E -5.63%K -12.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.69%E -3.66%K -8.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-07 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -11.78%E -6.54%K -14.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -0.572%E -0.294%K -0.603%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 03:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.05I 95.24%NM 65.12%1.96I 51.02%NM 34.88%46.3%2026-05-09 20:29