The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Maryland Whipsnakes v Denver Outlaws

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 16:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maryland Whipsnakes (Local)

Prediction 59.13%1.69fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.25%59.12%59.13%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.611.6564.10%61.94%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Outlaws (Visit)

Prediction 40.87%2.45fair odd
EV +0.137%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.094%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.88%40.87%42.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.212.312.302.4545.25%43.37%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maryland Whipsnakes (Local): 59.13%; Denver Outlaws (Visit): 40.87%. For Denver Outlaws (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.447. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.450, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.137%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV +0.137%E +0.056%K +0.094%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 12:35
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.795%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.36%E -1.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 15:10
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.40%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.99%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-30 18:44
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.99%E -3.77%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.99%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 19:29
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 13:05
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 13:10
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -9.67%E -4.38%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.