Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Outlaws v Utah Archers

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 02:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Outlaws (Local)

Prediction 53.23%1.88fair odd

EV -2.59%

Edge -1.41%

Kelly -3.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.22%53.23%52.36%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.711.791.821.8358.48%55.97%54.95%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utah Archers (Visit)

Prediction 46.77%2.14fair odd

EV -1.79%

Edge -0.850%

Kelly -1.62%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.88%46.77%47.64%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.032.002.1050.00%49.18%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Outlaws (Local): 53.23%; Utah Archers (Visit): 46.77%. For Utah Archers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.79%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.59%E -1.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.46%E -3.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-22 15:59
FanDuel🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.12%E -1.71%K -3.80%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.46%E -3.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-21 00:29
DraftKings🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.97%E -5.25%K -12.64%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.79%E -0.850%K -1.62%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-25 00:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.75I 57.14%NM 47.60%	1.59I 62.89%NM 52.40%	20.0%	2026-07-25 02:10

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