The School of Odds

Denver Outlaws v Philadelphia Waterdogs

2026-07-26 01:05 UTC — PLL

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Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Denver Outlaws (Local)

Prediction 51.05%1.96fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%51.05%51.05%51.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.831.861.871.8755%54%53%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Philadelphia Waterdogs (Visit)

Prediction 48.95%2.04fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -4.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%48.95%48.95%48.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.911.941.951.9552%52%51%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.56%E -2.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 06:14
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.56%E -2.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 06:22
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.57%E -3.59%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.51%E -3.41%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%7.9%2026-07-25 13:45