The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Denver Outlaws v Carolina Chaos

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Outlaws (Local)

Prediction 51.37%1.95fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.37%51.05%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.771.8757.47%55.78%56.50%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carolina Chaos (Visit)

Prediction 48.63%2.06fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%48.63%48.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.952.0053.48%51.24%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Outlaws (Local): 51.37%; Carolina Chaos (Visit): 48.63%. For Carolina Chaos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -2.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.95%E -2.11%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.16%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 22:58
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.95%E -2.11%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.05%E -4.84%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.08%E -5.13%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.73%E -1.37%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-05 22:59
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.08%E -5.13%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.73%E -1.37%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-05 22:59
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.08%E -5.13%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.73%E -1.37%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-05 22:59
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%EV -9.60%E -5.45%K -12.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-05 22:59
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -10.62%E -6.11%K -14.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-05 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.25I 80.00%NM 48.13%1.16I 86.21%NM 51.87%66.2%2026-03-05 23:01