The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Denver Outlaws v Carolina Chaos

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Outlaws (Local)

Prediction 45.92%2.18fair odd
EV -0.814%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.701%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%45.92%44.04%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.072.152.1653.48%48.27%46.51%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carolina Chaos (Visit)

Prediction 54.08%1.85fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.604%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.08%55.96%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.681.8759.88%58.42%59.52%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Outlaws (Local): 45.92%; Carolina Chaos (Visit): 54.08%. For Carolina Chaos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -14.13%E -7.56%K -16.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +1.13%E +0.604%K +1.30%G +0.015%7.0%2026-03-07 20:50
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -0.814%E -0.377%K -0.701%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 02:54
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.43%EV -10.46%E -5.36%K -11.01%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.57%EV -8.60%E -5.09%K -12.47%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 19:00
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -1.27%E -0.592%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.69%E -5.80%K -14.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 06:49
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -1.27%E -0.592%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.69%E -5.80%K -14.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 06:49
Bally Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -1.27%E -0.592%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.69%E -5.80%K -14.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 06:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.