The School of Odds

Denver Outlaws v Carolina Chaos

2026-07-18 18:00 UTC — PLL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Denver Outlaws (Local)

Prediction 55.50%1.80fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.55%55.50%55.12%56.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.711.7560%58%58%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Carolina Chaos (Visit)

Prediction 44.50%2.25fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.958%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.50%44.88%45.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.132.102.2048%47%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.87%E -1.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 19:48
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-15 20:54
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.11%E -0.958%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 20:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%8.0%2026-07-15 20:59