The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Carolina Chaos v Denver Outlaws

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carolina Chaos (Local)

Prediction 45.35%2.20fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.13%45.38%45.16%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.092.102.1448.78%47.79%47.62%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Outlaws (Visit)

Prediction 54.65%1.83fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.62%54.84%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.741.8059.17%57.55%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carolina Chaos (Local): 45.35%; Denver Outlaws (Visit): 54.65%. For Denver Outlaws (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -2.95%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -7.65%E -4.52%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-06 18:09
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-01 15:30
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-01 15:39
Bally Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-01 15:38
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.55%E -3.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-05 17:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -5.21%E -2.49%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -6.55%E -3.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-06 18:09
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -6.57%E -3.19%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -3.27%E -1.85%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-06 19:09
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.63%E -0.908%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-04 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.67I 59.88%NM 49.09%1.61I 62.11%NM 50.91%22.0%2026-06-06 21:20