The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Carolina Chaos v California Redwoods

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carolina Chaos (Local)

Prediction 43.84%2.28fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%43.96%44.04%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.152.2548.78%46.39%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

California Redwoods (Visit)

Prediction 56.16%1.78fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%56.04%55.96%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.701.7460.61%59.06%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carolina Chaos (Local): 43.84%; California Redwoods (Visit): 56.16%. For Carolina Chaos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -1.36%E -0.603%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 21:05
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 21:19
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-30 19:40
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.30%E -2.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:33
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:05
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:10
Bally Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -8.37%E -4.01%K -7.68%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-30 13:04
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -10.13%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.28%E -1.31%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-29 19:12
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎2.22I 45.05%NM 40.64%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.36%10.8%2026-07-31 21:59

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