The School of Odds

California Redwoods v Philadelphia Waterdogs

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

California Redwoods (Local)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.47%50.08%50.00%51.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.831.891.891.9155%53%53%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Philadelphia Waterdogs (Visit)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%49.92%50.00%50.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.871.891.891.9153%53%53%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-30 16:59
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-01 19:49
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 21:19
Unibet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-01 17:40
BetRivers1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-01 17:40
Bally Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-01 17:40
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 11:15
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-07 23:39
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 22:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.02I 98.04%NM 65.77%1.96I 51.02%NM 34.23%49.1%2026-07-10 22:25