The School of Odds

Boston Cannons v Denver Outlaws

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Boston Cannons (Local)

Prediction 42.10%2.38fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.39%42.07%42.16%42.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.242.262.252.3045%44%44%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Denver Outlaws (Visit)

Prediction 57.90%1.73fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -5.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.44%57.93%57.84%58.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.611.641.641.6662%61%61%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.16%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-01 19:49
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -4.00%E -1.76%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -6.79%E -4.21%K -11.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 23:39
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 21:30
Caesars2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 22:41
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.05%E -3.08%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.05%E -3.08%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Bally Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.05%E -3.08%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
FanDuel2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -5.69%E -2.54%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -3.89%E -2.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 16:59
DraftKings2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -5.69%E -2.54%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.71%9.0%2026-07-11 00:05