Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers v North Carolina Tar Heels

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

38%

62%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 37.91%2.64fair odd

EV -4.48%

Edge -1.78%

Kelly -2.94%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.50%37.91%37.78%38.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.492.502.5240.82%40.16%40.00%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit)

Prediction 62.09%1.61fair odd

EV -5.00%

Edge -3.27%

Kelly -9.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.56%62.09%62.22%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.521.531.5366.67%65.79%65.36%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virginia Cavaliers (Local): 37.91%; North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit): 62.09%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.52, with an expected value of -4.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.48%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.00%E -3.27%K -9.43%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-04-16 00:19
BetMGM🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.86%E -4.57%K -13.72%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-16 16:30
DraftKings🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.00%E -3.27%K -9.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-18 14:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.