Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vermont Catamounts v UMBC Retrievers

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vermont Catamounts (Local)

Prediction 68.20%1.47fair odd

EV -2.48%

Edge -1.73%

Kelly -5.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.67%68.20%67.44%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.341.381.371.4374.63%72.60%72.99%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UMBC Retrievers (Visit)

Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd

EV +1.77%

Edge +0.552%

Kelly +0.803%

Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.52%31.80%32.56%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.852.952.883.2035.09%33.87%34.72%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vermont Catamounts (Local): 68.20%; UMBC Retrievers (Visit): 31.80%. For UMBC Retrievers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -8.62%E -6.43%K -25.34%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +1.77%E +0.552%K +0.803%G +0.014%	5.9%	2026-03-14 15:45
BetMGM🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-12 13:40
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -2.48%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -9.05%E -3.16%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-14 15:30
Fliff🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -8.62%E -6.43%K -25.34%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -9.36%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-14 15:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.