Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Utes v Air Force Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Utes (Local)

Prediction 69.04%1.45fair odd

EV -3.34%

Edge -2.39%

Kelly -8.36%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.44%69.04%69.20%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.341.371.381.4074.63%72.82%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Air Force Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 30.96%3.23fair odd

EV -0.931%

Edge -0.291%

Kelly -0.423%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.52%30.96%30.80%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.073.103.2034.48%32.61%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Utes (Local): 69.04%; Air Force Falcons (Visit): 30.96%. For Air Force Falcons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.931%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.34%E -2.39%K -8.36%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-01 17:00
FanDuel🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.43%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.03%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-01 21:05
DraftKings🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.49%E -5.59%K -22.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -0.931%E -0.291%K -0.423%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-01 21:13

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.