Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacred Heart Pioneers v Merrimack Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

90%

10%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacred Heart Pioneers (Local)

Prediction 89.53%1.12fair odd

EV -3.31%

Edge -3.07%

Kelly -41.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.11%89.53%89.81%90.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.051.051.0898.04%95.24%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merrimack Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 10.47%9.55fair odd

EV +6.83%

Edge +0.670%

Kelly +0.743%

Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 10.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.33%10.47%10.19%11.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.009.048.9710.2012.50%11.07%11.14%9.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sacred Heart Pioneers (Local): 89.53%; Merrimack Warriors (Visit): 10.47%. For Merrimack Warriors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.67%EV -6.00%E -5.71%K -119.95%G +0.000%	10.20I 9.80%NM 9.33%EV +6.83%E +0.670%K +0.743%G +0.051%	5.0%	2026-03-04 23:59
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -6.00%E -5.71%K -119.95%G +0.000%	9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -3.12%E -0.337%K -0.378%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-05 14:44
Fliff🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 89.51%EV -8.68%E -8.51%K -434.17%G +0.000%	8.70I 11.49%NM 10.49%EV -8.88%E -1.02%K -1.15%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-03-06 04:55
DraftKings🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.31%E -3.07%K -41.40%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -16.21%E -2.03%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-04 21:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.