Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Spiders v Saint Joseph's Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Spiders (Local)

Prediction 90.95%1.10fair odd

EV -3.60%

Edge -3.39%

Kelly -59.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

90.24%90.95%90.58%92.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.041.051.041.0696.15%95.54%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Joseph's Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 9.05%11.05fair odd

EV +8.63%

Edge +0.719%

Kelly +0.784%

Growth +0.068%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.98%9.05%9.42%9.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.8010.6010.0012.0010.20%9.43%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Spiders (Local): 90.95%; Saint Joseph's Hawks (Visit): 9.05%. For Saint Joseph's Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.41%E -5.21%K -135.35%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.63%E +0.719%K +0.784%G +0.068%	4.5%	2026-04-18 14:59
BetMGM🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.41%E -5.21%K -135.35%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.48%E -0.948%K -1.05%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-16 15:30
FanDuel🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -3.60%E -3.39%K -59.92%G +0.000%	9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV -11.29%E -1.15%K -1.28%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-04-16 00:38

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.