Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Friars v Villanova Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

28%

72%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Friars (Local)

Prediction 27.67%3.61fair odd

EV +2.38%

Edge +0.643%

Kelly +0.882%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.55%27.67%28.42%29.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.433.353.7030.77%29.13%29.85%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villanova Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 72.33%1.38fair odd

EV -3.80%

Edge -2.86%

Kelly -11.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.96%72.33%71.58%74.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.311.331.3378.74%76.34%75.19%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Friars (Local): 27.67%; Villanova Wildcats (Visit): 72.33%. For Providence Friars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV +2.38%E +0.643%K +0.882%G +0.021%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -8.14%E -6.41%K -30.15%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-09 15:10
FanDuel🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.30%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.80%E -2.86%K -11.52%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-04-10 18:19
BetMGM🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.07%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.80%E -2.86%K -11.52%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-08 13:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.