Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions v Ohio State Buckeyes

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

Prediction 57.67%1.73fair odd

EV +0.345%

Edge +0.198%

Kelly +0.466%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.09%57.67%58.31%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.611.591.7465.36%61.92%62.70%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ohio State Buckeyes (Visit)

Prediction 42.33%2.36fair odd

EV +1.59%

Edge +0.664%

Kelly +1.14%

Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.39%42.33%41.69%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.252.262.4048.78%44.54%44.15%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 57.67%; Ohio State Buckeyes (Visit): 42.33%. For Ohio State Buckeyes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -10.04%E -6.43%K -17.92%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +1.59%E +0.664%K +1.14%G +0.018%	5.8%	2026-03-24 19:49
FanDuel🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.52%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.49%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-25 00:24
Fliff🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -11.77%E -7.69%K -22.20%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -4.76%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-27 02:29
BetMGM🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV +0.345%E +0.198%K +0.466%G +0.002%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -13.22%E -6.45%K -12.59%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-24 14:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.