Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local)

Prediction 69.51%1.44fair odd

EV -4.08%

Edge -2.96%

Kelly -10.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.13%69.51%68.81%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.321.351.351.3875.76%74.21%74.35%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 30.49%3.28fair odd

EV +2.16%

Edge +0.643%

Kelly +0.917%

Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.42%30.49%31.19%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.953.083.003.3533.90%32.52%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local): 69.51%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 30.49%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.56%E -5.68%K -22.90%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +2.16%E +0.643%K +0.917%G +0.020%	5.0%	2026-03-26 14:30
BetMGM🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.47%E -4.02%K -15.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-25 18:15
Fliff🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -8.25%E -6.25%K -25.79%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-27 19:35
DraftKings🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.08%E -2.96%K -10.74%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-24 20:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.