Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Brown Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

90%

10%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 90.09%1.11fair odd

EV -4.50%

Edge -4.25%

Kelly -75.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.78%90.09%90.24%90.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.051.051.0697.09%95.47%95.24%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brown Bears (Visit)

Prediction 9.91%10.10fair odd

EV -0.941%

Edge -0.094%

Kelly -0.105%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.42%9.91%9.76%11.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.159.249.4010.0012.27%10.83%10.64%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 90.09%; Brown Bears (Visit): 9.91%. For Brown Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 10.00, with an expected value of -0.941%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -4.50%E -4.25%K -75.00%G +0.000%	9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV -2.92%E -0.298%K -0.332%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-02 19:54
DraftKings🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.50%E -4.25%K -75.00%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-03-06 17:20
BetMGM🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.30%E -6.06%K -157.55%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.941%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-03 16:50
Fliff🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 88.78%EV -7.20%E -6.99%K -240.10%G +0.000%	8.15I 12.27%NM 11.22%EV -19.27%E -2.36%K -2.69%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-07 18:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.