Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maryland Terrapins v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

75%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maryland Terrapins (Local)

Prediction 75.41%1.33fair odd

EV -1.22%

Edge -0.930%

Kelly -3.93%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.19%75.41%76.19%77.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.241.231.3184.03%80.65%81.30%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 24.59%4.07fair odd

EV +4.53%

Edge +1.07%

Kelly +1.39%

Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.16%24.59%23.81%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.914.004.2529.41%25.56%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maryland Terrapins (Local): 75.41%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 24.59%. For Michigan Wolverines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -8.76%E -7.24%K -41.71%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV +4.53%E +1.07%K +1.39%G +0.063%	6.2%	2026-03-24 19:54
FanDuel🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.74%E -4.59%K -22.97%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.62%E -0.405%K -0.541%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-25 00:59
Fliff🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -10.27%E -8.63%K -54.04%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -1.62%E -0.405%K -0.541%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-27 19:40
BetMGM🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -1.22%E -0.930%K -3.93%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -16.38%E -4.82%K -6.82%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-03-24 14:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.