Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marquette Golden Eagles v Villanova Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

31%

69%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marquette Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 30.63%3.26fair odd

EV -0.455%

Edge -0.140%

Kelly -0.202%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.04%30.63%29.52%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.863.103.203.2534.97%32.22%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villanova Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 69.37%1.44fair odd

EV -0.800%

Edge -0.559%

Kelly -1.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.67%69.37%70.48%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.371.341.4375.19%73.17%74.63%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marquette Golden Eagles (Local): 30.63%; Villanova Wildcats (Visit): 69.37%. For Marquette Golden Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -0.455%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -0.455%E -0.140%K -0.202%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.74%E -5.82%K -23.45%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-16 16:34
DraftKings🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -1.99%E -0.621%K -0.903%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.04%E -5.26%K -20.72%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-15 15:10
FanDuel🎯	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -12.40%E -4.34%K -6.67%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -0.800%E -0.559%K -1.86%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-04-17 00:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.