Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marist Red Foxes v Air Force Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marist Red Foxes (Local)

Prediction 30.83%3.24fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.34%30.83%30.80%31.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.013.053.1035.09%33.20%32.79%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Air Force Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 69.17%1.45fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -11.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.02%69.17%69.20%69.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.361.361.3874.63%73.53%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marist Red Foxes (Local): 30.83%; Air Force Falcons (Visit): 69.17%. For Marist Red Foxes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -4.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.43%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.55%E -3.29%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 16:44
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.43%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.62%E -4.90%K -18.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 14:00
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.24%E -3.82%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 16:49
Fliff🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -12.13%E -4.26%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -7.31%E -5.46%K -21.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 01:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.