Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Dolphins v Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

11%

89%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 11.19%8.94fair odd

EV +0.725%

Edge +0.081%

Kelly +0.091%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.54%11.19%11.27%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.108.538.509.0012.35%11.72%11.76%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit)

Prediction 88.81%1.13fair odd

EV -4.09%

Edge -3.78%

Kelly -51.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.24%88.81%88.73%89.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.061.071.081.0894.34%93.17%92.59%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacksonville Dolphins (Local): 11.19%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit): 88.81%. For Jacksonville Dolphins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.725%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +0.725%E +0.081%K +0.091%G +0.001%	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.86%E -5.53%K -97.72%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-07 02:20
BetMGM🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -4.87%E -0.573%K -0.649%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.09%E -3.78%K -51.09%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-07 13:10
FanDuel🎯	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV -9.35%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -4.09%E -3.78%K -51.09%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-10 15:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.