Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iona Gaels v Stony Brook Seawolves

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 19:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iona Gaels (Local)

Prediction 8.71%11.48fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -0.377%

Kelly -0.415%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.71%8.71%8.71%9.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.7510.3810.3811.0010.26%9.64%9.64%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stony Brook Seawolves (Visit)

Prediction 91.29%1.10fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -3.95%

Kelly -82.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

90.61%91.29%91.29%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.031.031.0599.01%97.09%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iona Gaels (Local): 8.71%; Stony Brook Seawolves (Visit): 91.29%. For Iona Gaels (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 11.00, with an expected value of -4.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -4.15%E -0.377%K -0.415%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -82.99%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-02-25 18:30
Fliff🎯	9.75I 10.26%NM 9.39%EV -15.04%E -1.54%K -1.72%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 90.61%EV -7.80%E -7.72%K -780.08%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-02-25 18:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.