Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgetown Hoyas v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

27%

73%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgetown Hoyas (Local)

Prediction 26.60%3.76fair odd

EV +1.09%

Edge +0.287%

Kelly +0.390%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.75%26.60%27.52%27.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.453.583.503.8028.99%27.91%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 73.40%1.36fair odd

EV -2.38%

Edge -1.79%

Kelly -7.22%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.46%73.40%72.48%75.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.301.311.3380.00%77.12%76.34%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Georgetown Hoyas (Local): 26.60%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 73.40%. For Georgetown Hoyas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.09%E +0.287%K +0.390%G +0.004%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.25%E -6.60%K -33.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-10 23:14
BetMGM🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -2.38%E -1.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-10 23:04
FanDuel🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -3.85%E -2.94%K -12.42%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-10 21:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.