Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Pioneers v St. John's Red Storm

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

95%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Pioneers (Local)

Prediction 95.30%1.05fair odd

EV -2.79%

Edge -2.74%

Kelly -139.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

94.34%95.30%95.30%96.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.021.021.0299.01%98.52%98.52%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. John's Red Storm (Visit)

Prediction 4.70%21.28fair odd

EV +22.20%

Edge +0.854%

Kelly +0.888%

Growth +0.197%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.74%4.70%4.70%5.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

17.0021.5021.5026.005.88%4.65%4.65%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Pioneers (Local): 95.30%; St. John's Red Storm (Visit): 4.70%. For St. John's Red Storm (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.75%E -3.71%K -374.69%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +22.20%E +0.854%K +0.888%G +0.197%	2.9%	2026-04-05 21:29
FanDuel🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -2.79%E -2.74%K -139.69%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -20.10%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-11 06:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.