Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Army Knights v Penn State Nittany Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Army Knights (Local)

Prediction 32.46%3.08fair odd

EV +0.639%

Edge +0.206%

Kelly +0.305%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.49%32.46%33.33%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.852.942.863.1035.09%34.05%34.97%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penn State Nittany Lions (Visit)

Prediction 67.54%1.48fair odd

EV -2.75%

Edge -1.91%

Kelly -6.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.43%67.54%66.67%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.411.431.4473.53%70.92%69.93%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Army Knights (Local): 32.46%; Penn State Nittany Lions (Visit): 67.54%. For Army Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.639%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.639%E +0.206%K +0.305%G +0.002%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.15%E -5.99%K -22.64%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-04 03:10
FanDuel🎯	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.15%E -2.50%K -3.85%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.42%E -2.39%K -7.96%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-09 17:30
BetMGM🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.48%E -2.62%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.75%E -1.91%K -6.25%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-07 17:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.