Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Air Force Falcons v Duke Blue Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

94%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Air Force Falcons (Local)

Prediction 5.54%18.04fair odd

EV +5.33%

Edge +0.281%

Kelly +0.296%

Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.09%5.54%5.54%5.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

16.0017.5017.5019.006.25%5.71%5.71%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Duke Blue Devils (Visit)

Prediction 94.46%1.06fair odd

EV -3.65%

Edge -3.58%

Kelly -182.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

94.01%94.46%94.46%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.021.021.0298.04%98.04%98.04%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Air Force Falcons (Local): 5.54%; Duke Blue Devils (Visit): 94.46%. For Air Force Falcons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +5.33%E +0.281%K +0.296%G +0.016%	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.65%E -3.58%K -182.74%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-03-07 19:00
FanDuel🎯	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -11.30%E -0.706%K -0.753%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.65%E -3.58%K -182.74%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-07 19:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.