The School of Odds
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Timrå IK v Skellefteå AIK

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:17 UTC

Final: Timrå IK 1–4 Skellefteå AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timrå IK (Local)

Prediction 24.63%4.06fair odd
EV +0.976%
Edge +0.238%
Kelly +0.315%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%24.62%24.63%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.843.954.1030.77%26.05%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Skellefteå AIK (Visit)

Prediction 54.70%1.83fair odd
EV +0.096%
Edge +0.052%
Kelly +0.115%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.59%54.60%54.70%56.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.721.721.8364.10%58.28%58.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.67%4.84fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.60%20.78%20.67%23.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.364.404.6027.03%22.91%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Timrå IK (Local): 24.63%; Skellefteå AIK (Visit): 54.70%; Draw: 20.67%. For Timrå IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.976%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV +0.976%E +0.238%K +0.315%G +0.003%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.65%EV -2.64%E -1.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -6.96%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV +0.976%E +0.238%K +0.315%G +0.003%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.65%EV -2.64%E -1.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -6.96%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV +0.976%E +0.238%K +0.315%G +0.003%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.65%EV -2.64%E -1.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -6.96%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 12:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.49%E -0.372%K -0.496%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.49%EV -4.28%E -2.45%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -9.03%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.49%E -0.372%K -0.496%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -8.11%E -4.83%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.90%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 13:15
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -5.92%E -3.44%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -10.07%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:51
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -5.92%E -3.44%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -10.07%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:51
Grosvenor🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -5.92%E -3.44%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -10.07%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:51
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -5.92%E -3.44%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -10.07%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:51
Coolbet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -5.37%E -3.11%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.96%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 13:15
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.66%E -5.18%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -13.17%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-03 12:50
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.64%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.66%E -5.18%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.96%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -7.64%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.35%EV -12.48%E -7.80%K -20.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -4.90%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-03 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -10.11%E -2.77%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -3.19%E -1.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -9.03%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 13:03
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%EV -10.11%E -2.77%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.31%EV -14.67%E -9.41%K -26.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -15.23%E -3.72%K -4.91%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-03 13:15
1xBet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.31%E -3.78%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV +0.096%E +0.052%K +0.115%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -11.10%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.31%EV -19.96%E -6.14%K -8.87%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 50.59%EV -7.56%E -4.47%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.11%EV -23.50%E -6.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-03 13:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%3.8%2026-10-03 13:15
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-10-03 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-10-03 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-10-03 11:50
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-10-03 13:15
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-10-03 13:15
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%5.2%2026-10-03 13:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%5.5%2026-10-03 13:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 34.45%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.55%5.9%2026-10-03 13:05
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%6.0%2026-10-03 13:15
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%6.9%2026-10-03 13:15
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%7.9%2026-10-03 13:15
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-10-02 06:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-10-02 06:25