The School of Odds
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Timrå IK v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Timrå IK 1–5 Örebro HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timrå IK (Local)

Prediction 39.77%2.51fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.556%
Kelly +0.915%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.19%39.81%39.77%40.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.372.422.5547.62%42.14%41.41%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 36.92%2.71fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.42%37.05%36.92%38.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.512.552.6044.44%39.81%39.22%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV +0.243%
Edge +0.057%
Kelly +0.074%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%23.14%23.31%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.933.954.3027.78%25.46%25.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Timrå IK (Local): 39.77%; Örebro HK (Visit): 36.92%; Draw: 23.31%. For Timrå IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.19%EV +1.42%E +0.556%K +0.915%G +0.013%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.46%EV -4.02%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.35%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-22 15:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%EV -0.571%E -0.228%K -0.381%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%EV -4.02%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-22 15:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%EV -0.571%E -0.228%K -0.381%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%EV -4.02%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-22 15:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -2.56%E -1.04%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -5.86%E -2.30%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.92%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 15:19
Coolbet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.44%EV -2.96%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.18%EV -6.97%E -2.77%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +0.243%E +0.057%K +0.074%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-22 16:25
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -3.36%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -5.86%E -2.30%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.08%E -2.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-22 15:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -3.36%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -5.86%E -2.30%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.08%E -2.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-22 15:19
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -3.36%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -5.86%E -2.30%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.08%E -2.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-22 15:19
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -3.36%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -5.86%E -2.30%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.08%E -2.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-22 15:19
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -4.55%E -1.90%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.02%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 09:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55%EV -5.34%E -2.25%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.86%E -2.30%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 09:03
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.54%E -2.78%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.21%EV -9.56%E -3.90%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-22 15:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.61%EV -8.13%E -3.52%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.50%EV -5.13%E -1.99%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.42%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 16:10
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.61%EV -8.13%E -3.52%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.50%EV -5.13%E -1.99%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.42%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76%EV -8.53%E -3.71%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.15%EV -11.40%E -4.75%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-22 15:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.51%E -4.67%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.39%EV -11.40%E -4.75%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.72%EV -7.92%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-21 09:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.81%EV -14.49%E -6.74%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -13.25%E -5.64%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.77%EV -16.08%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-22 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.74%EV -16.48%E -7.85%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.09%EV -16.94%E -7.53%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.18%EV -16.08%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-21 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73%1.6%2026-09-22 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73%1.6%2026-09-22 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%4.6%2026-09-22 16:30
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%4.6%2026-09-22 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%4.6%2026-09-22 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-09-21 22:54
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%5.1%2026-09-22 16:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-21 08:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-21 08:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-21 08:59
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%6.8%2026-09-21 09:04
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%7.4%2026-09-22 05:04
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-09-20 08:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-09-20 09:04
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-09-20 09:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-09-20 09:04