The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Timrå IK v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Timrå IK 0–4 Färjestad BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timrå IK (Local)

Prediction 38.18%2.62fair odd
EV +3.10%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.82%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.56%37.99%37.98%39.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.502.502.7041.32%39.95%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 61.82%1.62fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.35%62.01%62.02%64.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.521.521.5967.57%65.98%65.79%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Timrå IK (Local): 38.18%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 61.82%. For Timrå IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.10%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV +3.10%E +1.15%K +1.82%G +0.056%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -7.90%E -5.30%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 11:44
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -4.16%E -1.66%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -5.42%E -3.54%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 13:40
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.42%E -3.54%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.42%E -3.54%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.42%E -3.54%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.51%E -5.75%K -17.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 06:35
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.51%E -5.75%K -17.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 06:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.51%E -5.75%K -17.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 06:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -4.54%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.51%E -5.75%K -17.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 06:39
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.30%E -2.14%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.04%E -3.97%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 14:25
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.30%E -2.14%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.04%E -3.97%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 14:24
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.45%E -2.63%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.57%E -2.29%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-22 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -7.59%E -3.14%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -1.71%E -1.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72%1.3%2026-10-22 16:55
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%3.0%2026-10-22 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%6.0%2026-10-22 16:55
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%7.5%2026-10-22 14:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.58%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-10-22 08:54
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.58%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-10-22 08:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.58%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-10-22 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%4.9%2026-10-22 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%5.5%2026-10-22 14:25
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%5.9%2026-10-22 12:39
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.28%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%6.2%2026-10-22 14:15
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-10-22 08:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-10-22 08:54
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-10-22 08:55
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-10-22 08:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.07%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-10-22 14:05
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%9.7%2026-10-22 08:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%10.6%2026-10-22 14:24
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.28%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.01%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-10-22 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.09%1.75I 57.14%NM 48.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.74%18.6%2026-10-22 16:49