The School of Odds
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Timrå IK v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timrå IK (Local)

Prediction 56.39%1.77fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -5.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.98%56.35%56.39%58.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.631.7064.10%61.35%61.35%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 22.90%4.37fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.467%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.31%22.95%22.90%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.074.204.3027.78%24.55%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.71%4.83fair odd
EV +5.62%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.95%20.70%20.71%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.694.805.1024.69%21.31%20.83%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Timrå IK (Local): 56.39%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 22.90%; Draw: 20.71%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.83. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.62%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.57%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48%EV -1.54%E -0.358%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.95%EV +5.62%E +1.10%K +1.37%G +0.077%3.5%2026-02-21 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.57%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48%EV -1.54%E -0.358%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.95%EV +5.62%E +1.10%K +1.37%G +0.077%3.5%2026-02-21 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.57%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48%EV -1.54%E -0.358%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.95%EV +5.62%E +1.10%K +1.37%G +0.077%3.5%2026-02-21 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.50%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -2.69%E -0.632%K -0.826%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV +3.55%E +0.709%K +0.887%G +0.031%4.9%2026-02-21 16:10
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.83%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +1.48%E +0.301%K +0.378%G +0.006%6.3%2026-02-21 16:10
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.83%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +1.48%E +0.301%K +0.378%G +0.006%6.3%2026-02-21 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.83%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +1.48%E +0.301%K +0.378%G +0.006%6.3%2026-02-21 16:10
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.83%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +1.48%E +0.301%K +0.378%G +0.006%6.3%2026-02-21 16:10
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -12.03%E -7.71%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -6.12%E -1.49%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -0.595%E -0.124%K -0.157%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:10
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.31%EV -12.03%E -7.71%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -0.595%E -0.124%K -0.157%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 16:10
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.61%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -3.83%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.48%EV -2.67%E -0.567%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-21 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.65%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -3.83%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.74%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 16:15
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.78%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.28%EV -7.26%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -6.81%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.23%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.12%E -1.49%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.81%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 16:19
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.81%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -8.64%E -5.34%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -12.99%E -3.42%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -6.81%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-21 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.41%EV -12.03%E -7.71%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.01%EV -17.57%E -4.88%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.58%EV -13.02%E -3.10%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-21 16:15
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.98%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -14.13%E -3.77%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -15.09%E -3.68%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-21 16:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.01%EV -11.46%E -7.30%K -20.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.66%EV -16.42%E -4.50%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.33%EV -16.13%E -3.98%K -5.29%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-21 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 66.82%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%3.2%2026-02-21 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%3.8%2026-02-21 16:15
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%4.3%2026-02-21 16:23
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%4.4%2026-02-21 16:20
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%5.2%2026-02-21 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%5.2%2026-02-21 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.59%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%5.7%2026-02-21 16:20
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-02-21 11:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-02-21 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-02-21 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%6.3%2026-02-21 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-02-20 12:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-02-20 12:56
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%8.2%2026-02-21 16:15
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 50.00%1.14I 87.72%NM 50.00%75.4%2026-02-21 01:15