The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Timrå IK v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00 UTC

Final: Timrå IK 3–2 Djurgårdens IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timrå IK (Local)

Prediction 57.03%1.75fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%57.14%57.14%58.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.7162.50%60.66%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 42.97%2.33fair odd
EV -0.748%
Edge -0.324%
Kelly -0.571%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.22%42.86%42.86%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.212.202.3146.51%45.30%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Timrå IK (Local): 57.03%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 42.97%. For Djurgårdens IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -0.748%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.47%E -1.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.47%E -2.49%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 13:50
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.04%E -1.79%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.62%E -3.55%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.04%E -1.79%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.62%E -3.55%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.04%E -1.79%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.62%E -3.55%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.76%E -1.68%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 13:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 15:50
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -7.61%E -4.69%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -0.748%E -0.324%K -0.571%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.61%E -4.69%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.47%E -2.49%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.75%E -5.47%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.47%E -2.49%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 15:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.75%E -5.47%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.47%E -2.49%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 15:50
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.75%E -5.47%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.47%E -2.49%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 15:50
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.75%E -5.47%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.47%E -2.49%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 57.07%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.93%6.8%2026-09-26 15:50
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%7.2%2026-09-26 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.86%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.70%2.4%2026-09-26 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49%3.4%2026-09-26 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49%3.4%2026-09-26 14:05
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.57%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%4.3%2026-09-26 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.72%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%4.7%2026-09-26 14:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%5.9%2026-09-26 15:50
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%6.0%2026-09-26 15:49
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-09-26 15:50
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-09-26 14:05
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-09-26 14:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-09-26 14:05
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-09-26 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.20%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-09-26 15:45
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.81%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%10.2%2026-09-26 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%10.7%2026-09-26 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.10%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%12.1%2026-09-26 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.59%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.64%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%15.6%2026-09-26 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.68%17.3%2026-09-26 15:49