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Skellefteå AIK v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 60.36%1.66fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -4.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%60.25%60.35%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.581.6165.36%63.82%63.29%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 39.64%2.52fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.65%39.75%39.65%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.352.302.4643.48%42.53%43.48%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 60.36%; Rögle BK (Visit): 39.64%. For Rögle BK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.46, with an expected value of -2.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.81%E -1.75%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-10 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.81%E -1.75%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-10 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.81%E -1.75%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-10 17:55
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-10 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.08%E -1.69%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 16:09
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.62%E -2.93%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 16:25
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.62%E -2.93%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 16:24
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -6.43%E -4.15%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -2.50%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-10 16:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.64%E -4.99%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-10 16:20
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.64%E -4.99%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 15:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.64%E -4.99%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 15:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.64%E -4.99%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 15:55
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.64%E -4.99%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.4%2026-03-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%2.7%2026-03-10 17:55
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%4.1%2026-03-10 17:45
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%8.4%2026-03-10 16:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.45%2.4%2026-03-10 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%3.2%2026-03-10 17:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%3.2%2026-03-10 17:15
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.94%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.56%4.3%2026-03-10 08:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%4.9%2026-03-10 17:15
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.1%2026-03-10 16:20
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%6.2%2026-03-10 17:15
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%6.2%2026-03-10 17:15
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%6.2%2026-03-10 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%6.2%2026-03-10 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%6.5%2026-03-10 16:14
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%6.6%2026-03-10 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.01%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%9.1%2026-03-10 17:15
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.28%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%9.7%2026-03-10 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.86%10.8%2026-03-10 16:20
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%11.3%2026-03-10 16:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.59%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.55%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.86%14.8%2026-03-10 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.84%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.19%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.96%16.1%2026-03-10 16:20