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Skellefteå AIK v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 62.77%1.59fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.61%62.47%62.65%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.501.501.5667.57%66.46%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 37.23%2.69fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.53%37.35%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.542.6041.67%39.71%39.37%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 62.77%; Rögle BK (Visit): 37.23%. For Skellefteå AIK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -2.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.07%E -1.33%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -10.66%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:00
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.33%E -2.16%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -5.45%E -2.14%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.58%E -3.02%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.07%E -1.99%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 15:00
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.58%E -3.02%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.07%E -1.99%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 15:00
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.84%E -3.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.21%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.84%E -3.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.21%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.84%E -3.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.21%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.84%E -3.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.21%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.84%E -3.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.94%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%2.8%2026-10-10 14:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.45%6.8%2026-10-10 15:55
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 62.12%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.88%7.3%2026-10-10 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.84%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.16%8.0%2026-10-10 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.38%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.57%2.4%2026-10-10 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%3.3%2026-10-10 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%3.3%2026-10-10 15:20
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%4.1%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.30%4.8%2026-10-10 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.52%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%5.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%5.6%2026-10-10 14:00
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%6.2%2026-10-10 15:30
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%6.3%2026-10-10 15:20
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%6.3%2026-10-10 15:25
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%6.3%2026-10-10 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%6.3%2026-10-10 15:25
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%9.7%2026-10-10 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%10.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.81%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%15.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%17.1%2026-10-10 15:49