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Skellefteå AIK v Malmö Redhawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 17:04 UTC

Final: Skellefteå AIK 4–3 Malmö Redhawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 73.58%1.36fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -3.34%
Kelly -14.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%73.69%73.62%74.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.271.281.3080.00%78.46%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmö Redhawks (Visit)

Prediction 26.42%3.78fair odd
EV +0.400%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%26.31%26.38%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.623.603.8028.57%27.63%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 73.58%; Malmö Redhawks (Visit): 26.42%. For Malmö Redhawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.400%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV +0.400%E +0.105%K +0.143%G +0.001%4.4%2026-10-01 17:00
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.24%E -0.606%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.24%E -0.606%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 13:09
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.24%E -0.606%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 13:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.24%E -0.606%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 13:10
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.08%E -3.94%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.08%E -3.94%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.08%E -3.94%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 16:59
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.08%E -3.94%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 16:50
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.35%E -3.34%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-01 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.35%E -3.34%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-01 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%5.7%2026-10-01 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%6.3%2026-10-01 17:00
Smarkets◎1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%8.8%2026-10-01 17:00
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 71.78%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.22%9.7%2026-10-01 17:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.09%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.83%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%2.4%2026-10-01 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.39%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.69%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.92%3.3%2026-10-01 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.39%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.69%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.92%3.3%2026-10-01 15:20
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.42%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%3.7%2026-10-01 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.63%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%5.1%2026-10-01 15:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.95%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%5.7%2026-10-01 16:59
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.71%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%6.3%2026-10-01 16:44
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%6.4%2026-10-01 15:20
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%6.4%2026-10-01 15:20
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%6.4%2026-10-01 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%6.4%2026-10-01 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%6.7%2026-10-01 16:39
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%9.4%2026-10-01 17:00
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.72%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%10.3%2026-10-01 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.67%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.76%11.1%2026-10-01 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.79%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.45%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.76%12.6%2026-10-01 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 62.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.76%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.17%15.9%2026-10-01 16:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 60.34%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.40%16.7%2026-10-01 16:58