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Skellefteå AIK v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-09-29 17:00 UTC

Final: Skellefteå AIK 6–1 Luleå HF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 66.03%1.51fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -6.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.53%65.93%66.04%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.441.441.4769.44%69.30%69.44%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 33.97%2.94fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -0.790%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.07%33.96%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.752.752.9038.17%36.31%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 66.03%; Luleå HF (Visit): 33.97%. For Luleå HF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.29%E -3.07%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-29 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.50%E -0.517%K -0.790%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-29 14:15
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-29 12:30
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-29 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-29 16:50
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 12:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 12:04
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.01%E -4.20%K -6.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.01%E -4.20%K -6.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-09-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.29%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.71%1.4%2026-09-29 16:55
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%4.9%2026-09-29 16:55
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.84%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.16%8.0%2026-09-29 16:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68%2.5%2026-09-29 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68%2.5%2026-09-29 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68%2.5%2026-09-29 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%4.0%2026-09-29 16:45
Coolbet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.92%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.08%4.3%2026-09-29 07:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%5.5%2026-09-29 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-09-29 16:45
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-09-29 16:45
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-09-29 16:45
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-09-29 16:45
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.15%6.3%2026-09-29 15:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.51%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.42%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.07%6.7%2026-09-29 15:05
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%6.7%2026-09-29 16:45
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.60%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%9.0%2026-09-29 16:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%11.1%2026-09-29 16:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%11.2%2026-09-29 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.14%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.64%15.5%2026-09-29 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.90%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.56%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.54%16.8%2026-09-29 16:50