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Skellefteå AIK v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 17:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 52.02%1.92fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.60%52.15%52.02%53.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.761.8560.24%56.79%56.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 25.14%3.98fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.447%
Kelly +0.594%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.58%24.96%25.14%26.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.803.854.0529.85%26.28%25.97%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.540%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.41%22.89%22.84%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.104.204.3027.03%24.41%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 52.02%; Luleå HF (Visit): 25.14%; Draw: 22.84%. For Luleå HF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.95%EV -7.93%E -4.48%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV +1.81%E +0.447%K +0.594%G +0.011%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%EV -2.92%E -0.688%K -0.899%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-07 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%EV -5.32%E -2.93%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV +0.554%E +0.139%K +0.185%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV -1.78%E -0.414%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-07 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%EV -5.32%E -2.93%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV +0.554%E +0.139%K +0.185%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV -1.78%E -0.414%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-07 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%EV -5.32%E -2.93%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV +0.554%E +0.139%K +0.185%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV -1.78%E -0.414%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-07 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -6.88%E -3.85%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.554%E +0.139%K +0.185%G +0.001%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.54%EV -2.92%E -0.688%K -0.899%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-07 15:14
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -6.88%E -3.85%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.554%E +0.139%K +0.185%G +0.001%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.54%EV -2.92%E -0.688%K -0.899%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-07 16:45
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.45%E -4.80%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.96%E -0.502%K -0.676%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.06%E -0.968%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 15:15
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.45%E -4.80%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.96%E -0.502%K -0.676%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.06%E -0.968%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 15:15
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.45%E -4.80%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.96%E -0.502%K -0.676%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.06%E -0.968%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.45%E -4.80%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.96%E -0.502%K -0.676%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.06%E -0.968%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -4.80%E -2.63%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.47%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -4.06%E -0.968%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-07 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.41%EV -10.53%E -6.12%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -4.47%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -6.35%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-07 15:14
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -11.57%E -6.80%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -4.47%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-07 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.51%EV -13.65%E -8.22%K -20.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -9.78%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-07 15:15
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.88%EV -7.93%E -4.48%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.24%E -2.26%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 16:59
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.38%EV -8.97%E -5.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -8.24%E -2.26%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -14.34%E -3.82%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-07 16:40
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -3.76%E -2.03%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-07 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.21%EV -13.13%E -7.86%K -19.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.22%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.57%EV -15.49%E -4.19%K -5.74%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-07 16:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -9.49%E -5.45%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-07 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.45%EV -12.61%E -7.50%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.80%EV -15.79%E -4.71%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.75%EV -13.20%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-07 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%3.8%2026-04-07 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%3.9%2026-04-07 10:30
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%4.1%2026-04-07 15:15
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%5.2%2026-04-07 16:40
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-07 16:39
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-07 16:39
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-04-05 09:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-04-05 09:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-04-05 09:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-04-03 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-04-03 19:25
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-04-03 19:24
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-04-03 19:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-07 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-07 17:00