The School of Odds
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Skellefteå AIK v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Skellefteå AIK 1–5 Färjestad BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 43.42%2.30fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.58%43.83%43.42%45.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.132.152.2052.08%47.03%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 34.09%2.93fair odd
EV +0.574%
Edge +0.194%
Kelly +0.294%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.66%33.82%34.09%34.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.782.832.9541.67%35.98%35.40%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.237%
Kelly -0.306%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.35%22.49%23.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.034.104.4028.57%24.81%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 43.42%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 34.09%; Draw: 22.49%. For Färjestad BK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.574%.

13 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.81%EV -4.48%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.68%EV +0.574%E +0.194%K +0.294%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-05 09:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.81%EV -4.48%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.68%EV +0.574%E +0.194%K +0.294%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-05 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.81%EV -4.48%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.68%EV +0.574%E +0.194%K +0.294%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-05 09:05
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.44%EV -7.96%E -3.75%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.66%EV +0.574%E +0.194%K +0.294%G +0.002%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%EV -1.04%E -0.237%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 11:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.79%EV -5.35%E -2.45%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.92%EV -1.13%E -0.390%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.29%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 09:04
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -2.84%E -0.995%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 09:05
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -2.84%E -0.995%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 09:05
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -2.84%E -0.995%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -2.84%E -0.995%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.35%E -2.45%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.89%EV -4.54%E -1.62%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 08:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.48%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.24%E -2.27%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -4.42%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 09:10
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.67%EV -9.69%E -4.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -6.24%E -2.27%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -12.29%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-05 09:05
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.97%EV -4.92%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.35%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -6.66%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.20%EV -5.79%E -2.67%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.21%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.59%EV -6.66%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 09:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.62%EV -11.43%E -5.60%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.96%EV -7.95%E -2.94%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.42%EV -14.54%E -3.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-05 09:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%EV -11.00%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -9.65%E -3.64%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-04 08:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 42.87%EV -15.77%E -8.13%K -16.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.65%EV -18.18%E -7.57%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.48%EV -16.79%E -4.54%K -6.22%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-04 08:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 42.58%EV -16.64%E -8.67%K -18.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.06%EV -18.18%E -7.57%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.36%EV -21.28%E -6.08%K -8.51%G +0.000%22.3%2026-10-04 08:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (13)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%4.6%2026-10-04 20:30
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-05 09:05
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-05 09:05
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-04 08:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-04 08:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-04 08:14
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-04 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-04 16:35
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-05 05:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-05 05:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01