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Skellefteå AIK v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 51.27%1.95fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.06%51.23%51.27%52.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.821.811.8758.14%55.09%55.25%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 26.63%3.75fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.41%26.67%26.63%27.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.413.403.6031.75%29.36%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV +4.93%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.26%22.10%22.09%23.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.394.504.7526.67%22.78%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 51.27%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 26.63%; Draw: 22.09%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.93%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV +4.93%E +1.04%K +1.31%G +0.065%3.7%2026-02-21 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV +4.93%E +1.04%K +1.31%G +0.065%3.7%2026-02-21 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV +4.93%E +1.04%K +1.31%G +0.065%3.7%2026-02-21 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -8.11%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.83%E +0.814%K +1.03%G +0.040%4.9%2026-02-21 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.93%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.62%E +0.351%K +0.449%G +0.007%6.4%2026-02-21 16:55
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.93%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.62%E +0.351%K +0.449%G +0.007%6.4%2026-02-21 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.93%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.62%E +0.351%K +0.449%G +0.007%6.4%2026-02-21 16:55
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.93%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.62%E +0.351%K +0.449%G +0.007%6.4%2026-02-21 16:55
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -10.77%E -3.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -0.593%E -0.132%K -0.169%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:55
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.11%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -0.593%E -0.132%K -0.169%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -4.12%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -4.12%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%EV -2.80%E -0.637%K -0.824%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-20 10:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.79%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.45%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -5.01%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -4.12%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -4.12%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%EV -6.12%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-20 05:40
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.65%EV -4.12%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%EV -6.12%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-20 05:40
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -4.12%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.52%EV -8.91%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -6.12%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.11%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -9.43%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-20 05:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.33%EV -11.81%E -6.86%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.48%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.19%EV -13.85%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-21 16:25
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -13.44%E -4.13%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -14.95%E -3.88%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-21 15:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.74%EV -11.29%E -6.53%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -17.16%E -4.58%K -6.24%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-21 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%4.1%2026-02-20 05:40
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%4.2%2026-02-21 15:29
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-02-20 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-02-20 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-02-20 17:05
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%5.1%2026-02-21 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%5.1%2026-02-21 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%5.2%2026-02-21 15:35
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-02-20 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-02-20 12:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-02-20 12:55
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-02-20 12:56
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-02-20 12:55
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%8.1%2026-02-21 05:05
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 51.90%1.23I 81.30%NM 48.10%69.0%2026-02-21 15:05