The School of Odds
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Skellefteå AIK v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Skellefteå AIK 4–1 Djurgårdens IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skellefteå AIK (Local)

Prediction 76.96%1.30fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -8.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.67%77.17%76.88%79.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.221.2784.75%81.56%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 23.04%4.34fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.52%22.83%23.12%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.114.054.5725.64%24.36%24.69%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skellefteå AIK (Local): 76.96%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 23.04%. For Djurgårdens IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.28%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.48%EV -9.18%E -7.78%K -51.02%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.52%EV +5.28%E +1.16%K +1.48%G +0.078%6.6%2026-10-22 16:25
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -0.940%E -0.219%K -0.285%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:35
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -0.940%E -0.219%K -0.285%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:35
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.24%E -0.772%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.24%E -0.772%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.24%E -0.772%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 16:45
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -3.03%E -2.40%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -6.70%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 16:40
theScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.80%E -3.04%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -2.26%E -1.78%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 16:20
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.15%E -2.60%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.15%E -2.60%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.15%E -2.60%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:20
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.11%E -5.00%K -27.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.15%E -2.60%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%0.7%2026-10-22 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%2.6%2026-10-22 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%2.6%2026-10-22 16:50
Smarkets◎1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%7.9%2026-10-22 16:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.87%3.1%2026-10-22 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.87%3.1%2026-10-22 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.87%3.1%2026-10-22 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.92%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.98%5.1%2026-10-22 16:35
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%5.9%2026-10-22 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.32%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%6.1%2026-10-22 16:45
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.18%6.64I 15.06%NM 14.17%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.65%6.3%2026-10-22 16:50
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.02%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%6.5%2026-10-22 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.02%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%6.5%2026-10-22 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.02%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%6.5%2026-10-22 16:35
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.02%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%6.5%2026-10-22 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.42%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.99%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.59%6.7%2026-10-22 16:45
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.86%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%10.0%2026-10-22 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.47%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.14%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.38%10.6%2026-10-22 16:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.41%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.60%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.99%15.8%2026-10-22 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 64.04%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.51%19.2%2026-10-22 16:49