The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Rögle BK v Timrå IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 17:00 UTC

Final: Rögle BK 4–1 Timrå IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 55.31%1.81fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -4.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.76%55.29%55.31%58.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.641.641.7564.94%60.84%60.98%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Timrå IK (Visit)

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV +14.20%
Edge +2.90%
Kelly +3.64%
Growth +0.517%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.55%23.28%23.31%24.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.454.394.604.9028.99%22.79%21.74%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.39%4.68fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -0.759%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.04%21.43%21.39%22.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.284.304.5526.32%23.38%23.26%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 55.31%; Timrå IK (Visit): 23.31%; Draw: 21.39%. For Timrå IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.20%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.98%EV -7.08%E -4.21%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.88%EV +14.20%E +2.90%K +3.64%G +0.517%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.14%EV -5.90%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-01 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.27%EV -8.19%E -4.93%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.74%EV +14.20%E +2.90%K +3.64%G +0.517%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -5.90%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-01 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.27%EV -8.19%E -4.93%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.74%EV +14.20%E +2.90%K +3.64%G +0.517%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -5.90%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-01 16:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.42%EV -9.29%E -5.67%K -14.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.55%EV +14.20%E +2.90%K +3.64%G +0.517%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.03%EV -6.97%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-01 16:29
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.33%EV -10.95%E -6.80%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV +11.87%E +2.47%K +3.12%G +0.370%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 16:30
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.33%EV -10.95%E -6.80%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV +11.87%E +2.47%K +3.12%G +0.370%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 16:29
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.33%EV -10.95%E -6.80%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV +11.87%E +2.47%K +3.12%G +0.370%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.33%EV -10.95%E -6.80%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV +11.87%E +2.47%K +3.12%G +0.370%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-01 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.15%EV -13.72%E -8.79%K -24.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV +7.20%E +1.57%K +2.00%G +0.144%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.32%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-01 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.25%EV -7.63%E -4.57%K -11.39%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.64%EV -3.28%E -0.791%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.11%EV -4.83%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:35
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.84%EV -6.53%E -3.86%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.96%EV -4.22%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.21%EV -4.83%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.38%EV -5.42%E -3.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -4.45%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -5.90%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 09:45
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.88%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV -6.78%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.11%EV -2.70%E -0.592%K -0.759%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 16:45
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.65%EV -5.42%E -3.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.78%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 04:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.16%EV -9.29%E -5.67%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -11.44%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -8.04%E -1.87%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-30 09:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 53.76%EV -12.06%E -7.58%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.74%EV -16.10%E -4.47%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.49%EV -18.73%E -4.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-01 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 54.16%EV -14.82%E -9.63%K -27.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.18%EV -19.60%E -5.68%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.66%EV -17.67%E -4.59%K -6.20%G +0.000%19.9%2026-09-30 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%3.9%2026-10-01 11:10
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%4.4%2026-10-01 10:24
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%4.9%2026-10-01 16:50
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%5.5%2026-10-01 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%5.5%2026-10-01 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.67%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.33%5.6%2026-10-01 16:35
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-09-30 04:31
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-09-30 04:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-09-30 04:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%6.9%2026-10-01 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%6.9%2026-10-01 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-30 05:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-30 05:24
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-30 05:24
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-30 05:24
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%8.2%2026-10-01 05:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%8.3%2026-10-01 11:09