Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC

Final: Rögle BK 1–2 Örebro HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

55%

24%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 54.83%1.82fair odd

EV -2.95%

Edge -1.66%

Kelly -3.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.09%54.96%54.83%57.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.681.671.7762.50%59.65%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd

EV -0.972%

Edge -0.231%

Kelly -0.304%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.58%23.49%23.58%24.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.504.004.104.2028.57%25.02%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.59%4.63fair odd

EV +3.63%

Edge +0.756%

Kelly +0.955%

Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.02%21.55%21.59%22.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.494.554.8026.32%22.25%21.98%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 54.83%; Örebro HK (Visit): 23.58%; Draw: 21.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.63%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -4.59%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32%EV -0.972%E -0.231%K -0.304%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40%EV +3.63%E +0.756%K +0.955%G +0.035%	2.1%	2026-10-17 11:54
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -6.24%E -3.65%K -8.78%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -0.972%E -0.231%K -0.304%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.20%EV +3.63%E +0.756%K +0.955%G +0.035%	3.1%	2026-10-17 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -6.24%E -3.65%K -8.78%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -0.972%E -0.231%K -0.304%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.20%EV +3.63%E +0.756%K +0.955%G +0.035%	3.1%	2026-10-17 11:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.71%EV -7.88%E -4.69%K -11.59%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV +2.55%E +0.536%K +0.679%G +0.017%	5.0%	2026-10-17 11:54
Casumo🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -9.53%E -5.77%K -14.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV +1.47%E +0.312%K +0.397%G +0.006%	6.3%	2026-10-17 11:54
Unibet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -9.53%E -5.77%K -14.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV +1.47%E +0.312%K +0.397%G +0.006%	6.3%	2026-10-17 11:55
Grosvenor🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -9.53%E -5.77%K -14.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV +1.47%E +0.312%K +0.397%G +0.006%	6.3%	2026-10-17 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -9.53%E -5.77%K -14.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV +1.47%E +0.312%K +0.397%G +0.006%	6.3%	2026-10-17 11:55
Coolbet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.43%EV -2.95%E -1.66%K -3.83%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.18%EV -1.77%E -0.389%K -0.499%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-17 12:44
TABtouch🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.80%EV -12.27%E -7.67%K -20.45%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -2.85%E -0.633%K -0.814%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-10-17 11:55
1xBet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.67%EV -7.33%E -4.34%K -10.63%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -5.01%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-17 12:25
Marathon Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.12%EV -8.43%E -5.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.58%EV -2.15%E -0.518%K -0.683%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.01%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-17 12:19
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.64%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.73%EV -6.09%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 12:20
Betway🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.65%EV -6.24%E -3.65%K -8.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -8.25%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -8.98%E -5.41%K -13.60%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.76%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-10-17 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 53.54%EV -11.17%E -6.90%K -18.02%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 24.78%EV -17.48%E -4.99%K -6.99%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%	15.3%	2026-10-17 12:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 53.09%EV -11.72%E -7.28%K -19.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 24.42%EV -17.48%E -4.99%K -6.99%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.96%E -4.73%K -6.41%G +0.000%	17.0%	2026-10-17 12:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 68.57%	3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43%	2.0%	2026-10-17 13:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%	3.7%	2026-10-17 12:55
DraftKings🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%	4.5%	2026-10-17 12:15
Betsson🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%	5.5%	2026-10-17 12:20
NordicBet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%	5.5%	2026-10-17 12:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.56%	3.01I 33.22%NM 31.44%	5.7%	2026-10-17 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%	5.7%	2026-10-17 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%	5.7%	2026-10-17 13:10
888sport🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%	5.9%	2026-10-17 12:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%	5.9%	2026-10-17 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%	5.9%	2026-10-17 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%	7.8%	2026-10-17 10:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%	8.5%	2026-10-16 08:00
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%	8.5%	2026-10-16 08:04
Neds🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%	8.5%	2026-10-16 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%	8.5%	2026-10-16 08:15
Smarkets◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.36%	2.66I 37.59%NM 34.64%	8.5%	2026-10-17 13:05