The School of Odds
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Rögle BK v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 71.14%1.41fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -4.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.85%71.09%70.97%73.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.331.3877.52%75.01%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 28.86%3.47fair odd
EV +1.59%
Edge +0.451%
Kelly +0.629%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%28.91%29.03%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.053.5233.33%31.27%32.79%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 71.14%; Leksands IF (Visit): 28.86%. For Leksands IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.59%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.18%EV -8.23%E -6.38%K -28.38%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.82%EV +1.59%E +0.451%K +0.629%G +0.010%5.9%2026-03-14 13:55
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.52%E -5.78%K -25.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.01%E +0.288%K +0.404%G +0.004%5.5%2026-03-14 14:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.52%E -5.78%K -25.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.01%E +0.288%K +0.404%G +0.004%5.5%2026-03-14 14:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.52%E -5.78%K -25.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.01%E +0.288%K +0.404%G +0.004%5.5%2026-03-14 14:04
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.96%E -2.93%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 14:05
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -1.83%E -1.32%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 14:10
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.83%E -1.32%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:10
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.83%E -1.32%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.38%E -4.05%K -16.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 14:00
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.38%E -4.05%K -16.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.38%E -4.05%K -16.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.38%E -4.05%K -16.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 13:59
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.38%E -4.05%K -16.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.65%7.7%2026-03-14 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.65%7.7%2026-03-14 14:10
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 68.98%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%8.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%8.9%2026-03-14 14:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 60.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.57%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.39%2.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%3.3%2026-03-14 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%3.3%2026-03-14 14:10
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.32%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.23%4.1%2026-03-13 15:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%5.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%6.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%6.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%6.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%6.2%2026-03-14 14:10
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.13%4.94I 20.24%NM 19.06%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%6.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%6.6%2026-03-14 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.69%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.57%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%6.6%2026-03-14 14:05
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.75%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.31%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%9.0%2026-03-14 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%10.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%10.5%2026-03-14 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.21%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%11.5%2026-03-14 14:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.71%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.18%15.2%2026-03-14 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%16.1%2026-03-14 14:10