The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rögle BK v HV71

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Rögle BK 4–3 HV71

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 53.08%1.88fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.63%53.08%53.08%54.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.751.761.8161.73%57.22%56.82%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HV71 (Visit)

Prediction 25.77%3.88fair odd
EV +1.80%
Edge +0.455%
Kelly +0.609%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%25.87%25.77%27.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.683.773.9532.79%27.15%26.49%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.14%4.73fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.361%
Kelly -0.460%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.62%21.06%21.14%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.284.324.6527.40%23.39%23.12%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 53.08%; HV71 (Visit): 25.77%; Draw: 21.14%. For HV71 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.80%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.49%EV -3.92%E -2.16%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV +1.80%E +0.455%K +0.609%G +0.011%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -6.97%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.49%EV -3.92%E -2.16%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV +1.80%E +0.455%K +0.609%G +0.011%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -6.97%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.49%EV -3.92%E -2.16%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV +1.80%E +0.455%K +0.609%G +0.011%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -6.97%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.60%EV -5.51%E -3.10%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV +0.508%E +0.130%K +0.175%G +0.001%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%EV -8.02%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 09:04
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.57%E -3.73%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -0.780%E -0.203%K -0.274%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -10.14%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.57%E -3.73%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -0.780%E -0.203%K -0.274%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -10.14%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.57%E -3.73%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -0.780%E -0.203%K -0.274%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -10.14%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.57%E -3.73%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -0.780%E -0.203%K -0.274%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -10.14%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.16%EV -6.04%E -3.41%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.23%EV -2.07%E -0.544%K -0.739%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.62%EV -1.68%E -0.361%K -0.460%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 11:59
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.53%EV -9.76%E -5.74%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -3.36%E -0.895%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -13.31%E -3.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 09:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.53%EV -7.10%E -4.06%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.18%EV -4.13%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -6.97%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 09:10
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.14%EV -6.04%E -3.41%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.49%EV -4.90%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.97%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.77%EV -11.88%E -7.16%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -5.93%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.31%E -3.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.45%E -2.47%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.22%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.97%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 09:05
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -4.45%E -2.47%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.80%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -4.85%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.26%EV -8.69%E -5.06%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.83%EV -13.67%E -4.08%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -9.08%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 09:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.37%EV -14.00%E -8.64%K -22.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.29%EV -21.40%E -7.02%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.34%EV -17.54%E -4.50%K -6.05%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 50.63%EV -14.00%E -8.64%K -22.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 26.89%EV -21.40%E -7.02%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.47%EV -22.82%E -6.25%K -8.61%G +0.000%21.9%2026-10-05 09:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%4.3%2026-10-04 20:30
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-05 09:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-05 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-05 09:05
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 08:10
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%7.5%2026-10-05 07:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01