The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rögle BK v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 57.73%1.73fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%57.68%57.69%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.611.7063.69%61.61%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 42.27%2.37fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%42.32%42.31%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.242.252.3045.45%44.58%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 57.73%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 42.27%. For Rögle BK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -1.86%E -1.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -7.00%E -3.18%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 06:49
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -4.75%E -2.88%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -4.47%E -1.98%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 09:00
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.75%E -2.88%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.89%E -2.17%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 00:00
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.75%E -2.88%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.89%E -2.17%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 06:49
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.75%E -2.88%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.89%E -2.17%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 06:50
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.06%E -4.38%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.78%E -1.21%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.06%E -4.38%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.78%E -1.21%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 14:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.06%E -4.38%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.78%E -1.21%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 14:02
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.63%E -4.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.00%E -3.18%K -5.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:15
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.63%E -4.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.00%E -3.18%K -5.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.63%E -4.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.00%E -3.18%K -5.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:16
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.63%E -4.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.00%E -3.18%K -5.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.37%E -5.97%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.89%E -2.17%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08%1.6%2026-03-07 14:10
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%2.8%2026-03-07 11:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%6.0%2026-03-07 14:09
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.71%8.4%2026-03-07 02:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.24%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.72%2.3%2026-03-07 13:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.70%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%3.2%2026-03-07 13:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.70%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%3.2%2026-03-07 13:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.90%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.52%4.5%2026-03-07 13:30
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.07%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%6.2%2026-03-07 13:30
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-03-07 13:30
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-03-07 13:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-03-07 13:29
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-03-07 13:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.98%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.86%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%6.6%2026-03-07 13:30
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%7.1%2026-03-06 00:00
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%8.4%2026-03-07 13:30
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%10.1%2026-03-07 13:30
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%10.6%2026-03-07 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%10.6%2026-03-06 00:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.81%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.15%15.0%2026-03-07 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 44.93%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.53%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.54%19.7%2026-03-06 00:00