The School of Odds
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Rögle BK v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 13:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 48.08%2.08fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.67%47.86%48.08%49.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.922.0155.56%52.02%52.08%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV +2.62%
Edge +0.739%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%29.11%28.91%29.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.313.303.5534.48%30.20%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.01%4.35fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -0.801%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.62%23.04%23.01%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.963.984.2027.78%25.27%25.16%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 48.08%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 28.91%; Draw: 23.01%. For Färjestad BK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.62%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.75%EV -3.83%E -1.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.47%EV +2.62%E +0.739%K +1.03%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%EV -5.67%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-05 12:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.13%EV -5.28%E -2.68%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV +2.62%E +0.739%K +1.03%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -5.67%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.13%EV -5.28%E -2.68%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV +2.62%E +0.739%K +1.03%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -5.67%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 12:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%EV -6.72%E -3.46%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV +1.18%E +0.337%K +0.471%G +0.006%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -7.97%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 12:35
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -7.68%E -4.00%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.267%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.12%E -2.31%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 12:35
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -7.68%E -4.00%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.267%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.12%E -2.31%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 12:35
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -7.68%E -4.00%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.267%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.12%E -2.31%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -7.68%E -4.00%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.267%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.12%E -2.31%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 12:35
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.94%EV -9.60%E -5.11%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -3.16%E -0.943%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.59%EV -10.27%E -2.63%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-05 12:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.02%EV -4.31%E -2.17%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.96%EV -4.60%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.03%EV -4.52%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.40%EV -5.28%E -2.68%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -4.60%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -3.36%E -0.801%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 13:00
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -11.05%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -4.60%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -11.42%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 12:35
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.73%EV -3.35%E -1.67%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.16%EV -4.89%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.12%EV -4.52%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -12.49%E -6.86%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -6.05%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -13.72%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 12:35
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.49%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.97%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 13:00
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.96%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -8.94%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -16.02%E -4.39%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-05 12:39
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.80%EV -3.83%E -1.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.81%EV -9.23%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.97%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.60%E -5.11%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -7.97%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 12:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.67%EV -10.08%E -5.39%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -17.17%E -4.77%K -6.60%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-05 12:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.75%EV -13.45%E -7.47%K -16.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.64%EV -16.17%E -5.57%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -12.57%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-05 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%3.1%2026-04-05 13:00
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%3.7%2026-04-05 13:00
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-04-05 12:50
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-05 13:00
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-05 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-04 04:14
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-04 04:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-04 04:14
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-04-05 13:00
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.00%6.8%2026-04-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%6.9%2026-04-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%6.9%2026-04-05 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-04-05 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-04-03 19:19
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-04-03 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-04-03 19:19
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-04-03 19:29