The School of Odds
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Rögle BK v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 17:02 UTC

Final: Rögle BK 3–1 Djurgårdens IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 66.39%1.51fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -5.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.57%66.48%66.04%67.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.431.4771.43%70.22%69.93%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 33.61%2.98fair odd
EV -0.856%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.33%33.52%33.96%34.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.792.752.9536.36%35.79%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 66.39%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 33.61%. For Djurgårdens IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.856%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.40%E -1.64%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -5.90%E -2.11%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-22 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.40%E -3.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.90%E -2.11%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 16:55
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.40%E -3.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.90%E -2.11%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 16:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.40%E -3.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 20:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.40%E -3.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 20:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.40%E -3.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 20:09
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.72%E -4.03%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.856%E -0.290%K -0.439%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-22 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.67%EV -7.05%E -5.04%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.33%EV -1.53%E -0.522%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 13:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.05%E -5.04%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.05%E -5.04%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 09:09
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.05%E -5.04%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 09:10
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.05%E -5.04%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.58%E -2.76%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 09:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%3.9%2026-09-22 16:20
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 65.36%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.64%8.5%2026-09-22 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 67.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%10.3%2026-09-22 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 67.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%10.3%2026-09-22 16:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32%2.0%2026-09-22 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.0%2026-09-22 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.0%2026-09-22 16:30
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.26%3.9%2026-09-22 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%5.1%2026-09-22 16:30
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-09-22 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-09-22 16:30
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-09-22 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-09-22 16:30
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.15%6.3%2026-09-22 16:51
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.53%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.05%6.8%2026-09-22 16:49
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%7.0%2026-09-22 16:49
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%10.6%2026-09-22 16:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%10.9%2026-09-22 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%12.3%2026-09-22 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.35%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.61%15.7%2026-09-22 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.49%17.0%2026-09-22 16:50